The Compound Impact Index
Event-specific. Applies the PHM signal scoring methodology to the Hormuz closure — mapping its demonstrated economic effects by country, sector, and named company, grounded entirely in independent research.
The Signal Index
The continuous version — measuring all active configurations simultaneously across 240 companies and 7 sectors. The Hormuz closure moved the Signal Index 28.7 points in three weeks, from 44.0 to 72.7. View Signal Index →
Your Position
The diagnostic maps where your organisation sits inside this picture — your sector, your route exposure, your COGS structure, your EM revenue proportion — and identifies which preparation windows are still open for you specifically. Run it free →
Duration scenarios — the cost curve by day
Dallas Fed oil market model · WTI/GDP projections · ASCII/Vienna TIDES cascade analysis
DAY 1–28 · CURRENT STATUS
Manageable
$98–105
WTI avg · Q2 GDP: −2.9pp annualised
Strategic reserves absorbing shock
Cape rerouting at 2–3× pre-disruption cost
TTF above €60/MWh · ECB halted cuts
Full-year GDP impact: −0.2pp
Model: Dallas Fed Q2 2026 · 1-quarter scenario
DAY 28–56 · THRESHOLD CROSSED
Non-Linear Begins
$115–125
WTI avg · Q2/Q3 GDP: −0.3pp full year
Shipping network cascade activates
Port slot backlogs compound
56-day disruption = 2.5× impact of 28-day
Emergency routing queues form
Model: ASCII/Vienna TIDES · 28–56 day scenario
DAY 56–90 · SEVERE
Severe — Reserve Drawdown
$132
WTI projection · GDP: −1.3pp full year
IEA strategic reserves at risk of depletion
Fertiliser 2027 season contracts disrupted
Specialty gas semiconductor risk activated
EM sovereign stress — widespread defaults risk
Model: Dallas Fed 3-quarter projection
DAY 90+ · CRISIS
Demand Destruction
$150–250
Modelled range · Global recession risk
Strategic reserves depleted
Industrial demand destruction begins
Food security crisis — fertiliser shortages active
1973 oil embargo comparable — or worse
Historical parallel: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo
Country exposure — who and how much
ASCII/Complexity Science Hub Vienna · 2022–23 bilateral trade data (BACI) · These are conservative estimates — actual exposure via secondary and derivative channels is higher
China
Asia-Pacific
$97B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 1 — Critical
40% crude oil via Hormuz — 20M bbl/day exposed
Shipping days lost (56-day): 4.3 days — widest range 1.3–9.5
Qatari LNG to 6 major import terminals
Specialty gas (neon/helium): $2.3B/yr from Qatar
India
South Asia
$74B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 1 — Critical
60% of petroleum imports from Gulf region
$125B diaspora remittances at risk via EM stress
Active negotiation for Hormuz passage rights
Two Indian tankers already allowed passage
Japan
Asia-Pacific
$63B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 1 — Critical
90% of crude from Middle East — most concentrated major economy
Shipping days lost (56-day): 3.0 days East Asia
Iran confirmed escort talks — passage approved
Signed joint security statement 21 March
United Kingdom
Europe
$12.9B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 1 — High (Europe's largest)
Qatari LNG $5.9B/yr — 46% of UK Gulf trade
UAE petroleum $3.8B/yr via Kuwait $2.9B
UK inflation projected above 5% in 2026
LNG irreplaceable in short term without infrastructure investment
Italy
Europe
$9.8B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 1 — High
Qatari LNG $4.4B/yr — highest LNG concentration in EU
Propane from Qatar $3.2B/yr
Chemical/steel surcharges up to 30% already implemented
Alternative LNG: USA, Algeria — but infrastructure constraints
South Korea
Asia-Pacific
$30B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 2 — Significant
LNG + crude combined exposure
Specialty gases: $0.3B/yr from Qatar
Signed joint security statement 21 March
Belgium
Europe
$8.2B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 2 — Significant
Zeebrugge LNG terminal — $5.8B Qatari LNG/yr
UAE diamonds $2.1B/yr via Antwerp
European gas hub role amplifies indirect exposure
France
Europe
$8.1B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 2 — Moderate-High
Qatar propane/petrochemicals $3.1B
Diversified suppliers — lower concentration risk
Nuclear + renewables provide energy buffer
United States
Americas
$13B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 2 — Indirect + Military Cost
Fertiliser imports $3.2B/yr from Gulf
Gasoline above $4/gallon — July 2023 high breached
Conducting reopening campaign — direct military cost
DFC war risk insurance programme activated
Germany
Europe
$5.7B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 2 — More Resilient
UAE machinery dominant — less energy-critical
Qatar specialty gases $0.6B — semiconductor risk
European gas market integration transmits TTF indirectly
Netherlands
Europe
$5.5B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 3 — Hub amplification
Rotterdam — Europe's largest port amplifies regional impact
LNG re-export hub: disruption spreads through pipeline network
Pakistan
South Asia
$16B
/yr Gulf imports
Tier 3 — EM Stress + Steel
Near-total dependence on Iranian construction steel
Active EM sovereign stress cycle
Saudi Arabia diverting oil via Yanbu — partial relief
Sector impact — by mechanism, not just magnitude
PHM condition lookup · 309 documented patterns · Each sector ranked by the documented mechanism connecting the signal to the P&L, not just the headline exposure number
1
Logistics & Supply Chain
Live event. Tanker traffic −95%. 150+ ships anchored. Cape rerouting at 2–3× pre-disruption cost.
4-week cascade threshold: 30 March 2026. Beyond this point, port slot backlogs compound non-linearly —
56-day disruption produces 2.5× the impact of 28 days (ASCII/Vienna TIDES model, 10,000 tankers, 1,315 ports).
Critical
2
Chemicals & Materials
TTF above €60/MWh — feedstock cost mechanism active. Energy 15–25% of COGS.
EU/UK chemical and steel manufacturers already imposing surcharges up to 30%.
European storage at 30% capacity — below 2021 threshold that preceded BASF curtailment.
High
3
Energy & Utilities
Brent $126/bbl — direct feedstock and operating cost exposure.
LNG supply disruption: Qatar is world's largest LNG exporter; all Qatari exports flow through Hormuz.
Strategic reserves: 90-day buffer at current consumption — depletion scenario enters planning at Day 56.
High
4
Agriculture & Agribusiness
Gulf states supply 31% of global urea exports — $13.5B across 43 countries.
Spring 2026 planting buffered by advance purchasing. 2027 season contracts: window open now, closes as disruption extends.
Primary impact: cost-push on farm margins — 1973 fertiliser spike parallel is documented.
High
5
Financial Services
Hormuz energy shock accelerates DXY tightening cycle — amplifies EM stress already active in Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan.
ECB halted rate cuts 19 March; UK inflation projected above 5%.
EM loan book currency compression compounds independently of energy exposure.
Elevated
6
Automotive & Manufacturing
Dual exposure: steel cost (Iran/UAE supply disruption) + energy cost (TTF/Brent feedstock).
US-China bifurcation compound risk. Direct exposure varies by supply chain geography —
Toyota, VW have Gulf-region operations exposure.
Elevated
7
Technology & Semiconductors
Qatar: 98% of Gulf specialty gas exports (helium, neon, argon for chip fabrication) — $3B across 26 countries.
Risk currently low due to diversified supply and strategic inventories.
Risk escalates at 4-week cascade threshold and if coinciding with another supply disruption.
Moderate — Monitor
Named company exposure — the preparation window question
Based on public filings, revenue data, and PHM sector signal overlays · For each company: the specific channel through which the current signal configuration reaches their P&L, and the downstream window still open
Maersk
Logistics & Supply Chain
Critical
Route exposure: Gulf/Red Sea corridor — primary operating lanes
Mechanism: Cape rerouting adds 18–22 days; emergency war risk premiums +300–400%
Preparation: Cape rerouting activated; customer surcharge dispute ongoing
Revenue: $81B · Bunker fuel: ~$6–8B/yr at Brent $126
Downstream: Q3/Q4 fuel hedge · war risk renewal
BASF SE
Chemicals & Materials
Critical
Energy exposure: TTF €60+ — Ludwigshafen feedstock cost mechanism active
Historical parallel: Curtailed production Aug 2022 at similar signal sequence
Mechanism: Energy 20–25% of COGS; embedded gas dependency documented
Revenue: €87B · Energy cost sensitivity: ~€2–4B per €10/MWh TTF increase
Downstream: Q3/Q4 energy contract position
DHL Group
Logistics & Supply Chain
Critical
Route: Gulf air and sea freight exposure — direct operational disruption
Mechanism: Air freight demand surge from customers rerouting; war risk premiums
Fuel: Jet fuel and bunker exposure to Brent $126 trajectory
Revenue: €94B · Fuel 15–20% of operating costs
Downstream: Client cargo audit · force majeure review
TotalEnergies
Energy
High
LNG: Qatar JV exposure — Qatari LNG disrupted
Trading: Brent position and refinery margin dynamics
Opportunity: Upstream revenue benefit; downstream feedstock cost
Revenue: $218B · LNG: significant Qatar JV volumes affected
Downstream: Qatar LNG contract force majeure status
HSBC
Financial Services
High
EM exposure: Significant loan book in Gulf, India, Pakistan, Egypt
Trade finance: Gulf trade finance exposure to disrupted corridors
Currency: EM currency compression — compound DXY/EM stress
Revenue: $65B · ~45% from Asia-Pacific and Middle East
Downstream: EM stress model review · trade finance provisioning
Kuehne+Nagel
Logistics & Supply Chain
High
Route: Sea freight Gulf corridor dependency
Client cargo: Mixed composition — energy, chemicals, consumer goods
Insurance: War risk premium position across Gulf contracts
Revenue: CHF 22B · Sea freight: largest business unit
Downstream: Client cargo audit · Cape approval remaining lanes
Cargill
Agriculture & Agribusiness
High
Fertiliser: Gulf urea/ammonia procurement exposure
Grain: EM purchasing power compression in key markets
Cash-to-cash: 90–270 day cycle — longest of any sector
Revenue: $177B · Agricultural commodities: Gulf fertiliser dependency
Downstream: 2027 input cost contracts — window open now
ASML
Technology / Semiconductors
Elevated — Monitor
Specialty gas: Neon/helium from Qatar for lithography — currently buffered
Threshold: Risk activates at 4-week cascade (30 March) if no diversification
US-China: Compound configuration with bifurcation risk already active
Revenue: €27.6B · Specialty gas: small % but critical process input
Downstream: Inventory cover review · alternative supplier status
Volkswagen Group
Automotive & Manufacturing
Elevated
Energy: TTF €60+ — German manufacturing energy cost exposure
Steel: Dual Iran/UAE steel supply disruption compound
EM: Revenue exposure in Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt — EM stress cycle
Revenue: €322B · Operations in 32 countries
Downstream: EM revenue hedge review · energy contract Q3/Q4
What this index is — and what it is not
The PHM Compound Impact Index applies the same scoring methodology as the Signal Index — six signal dimensions, each scored against documented activation thresholds from the PHM condition lookup (309 patterns) — but holds the Hormuz closure as the anchor event and maps its demonstrated effects through the three layers the PHM method tracks: geopolitical (the signal), psychological (how organisations and markets are responding), and operational (where the impact reaches the P&L, which decisions remain open, and at what cost multiple). The score is not a prediction. It is a structured reading of where the current configuration sits — and how far past the documented activation threshold it has moved. A score of 74/100, in a configuration that has no direct precedent for simultaneous seven-signal activation, means the preparation windows that remain open are the most valuable decisions available to any affected organisation right now.
Sources: Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII) / Complexity Science Hub Vienna / TU Delft — "When the Strait Closes: Trade Dependencies and Shipping Disruption Scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz", 20 March 2026 · TIDES agent-based model (10,000 tankers, 1,315 ports) · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas oil market research, March 2026 · IEA Global Energy Security briefing · ECB monetary policy communication, 19 March 2026 · Lloyd's List Intelligence tanker traffic data · Wikipedia Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran War · PHM condition lookup — 309 documented historical patterns across 8 sectors.
The index maps the event.
The diagnostic maps your position inside it.
The diagnostic maps your position inside it.
The Compound Impact Index shows where the Hormuz closure has landed across countries, sectors, and companies. The diagnostic maps where it lands for your organisation specifically — your sector, your operating regions, your COGS structure, your route exposure. It identifies your active conditions, scores them against the documented historical patterns, and produces a named task matrix: what to do, who owns it, and what the cost multiple becomes after each preparation window closes. 12 minutes free. Full report €1,200. 48 hours.