PHM Signal Index · Updated on material signal events

PHM Signal Index

The PHM Signal Index is the aggregate reading of the signal environment across 240 named global companies — by sector and by region. It does what the Dow and S&P do for equity markets: translates a complex, multi-signal environment into a single structured number that can be tracked over time, compared across events, and acted on before the disruption arrives. The index does not predict. It measures where the current signal configuration sits relative to the documented thresholds at which historical disruptions have activated — and expresses that reading as a number. When the index moves, something structural has changed in the exposure landscape. When it approaches a threshold, the preparation window is closing. At 72.7, the index is above the 2022 Ukraine shock entry point and approaching the peak of that event. The compound configuration driving this reading — Hormuz closure, Brent at $126, TTF above €60, DXY at 104.2 — has no direct precedent in the post-Cold War period for simultaneous activation across all seven tracked signals.

Universe: 240 companies · 7 sectors · 6 regions · Signals: 6 active inputs · weighted by documented mechanism strength
Last updated: 23 March 2026 — Hormuz Day 23 · Base: Jan 2020 = 12.0 · Mar 2022 peak = 81.0 · Pre-Hormuz = 44.0

Composite · 240 companies · 7 sectors

0/100

▲ +28.7 since 28 Feb 2026 · Prior: 44.0

High — Approaching Cascade Threshold

Next threshold: Day 28 (30 Mar) · Non-linear zone

The Signal Index

Measures the compound geopolitical signal exposure of 240 named global companies — continuously, across all active configurations simultaneously. When the index moves, something structural has changed in the exposure landscape.

The Compound Impact Index

Event-specific. Applies the same methodology to a single activated event — currently the Hormuz closure — and maps its demonstrated economic effects by country, sector, and named company. View Impact Index →

The Diagnostic

Maps your specific organisation's position inside the index. Where the Signal Index shows the aggregate and the Impact Index shows the event, the diagnostic shows where you sit — and what the open preparation windows are. Run it free →

Historical Series

Index history — January 2020 to now

Calibrated against documented activation events. The index at 44 in February 2026 was the pre-Hormuz baseline. It moved 28.7 points in three weeks — the largest single-event move since the March 2022 Ukraine activation.

PHM-SI Historical

Current: 72.7 · Peak (Mar 2022): 81 · Base (Jan 2020): 12

Sector Sub-Indices

Which sectors are most exposed — and why

Each score reflects how the current signal configuration transmits through the documented mechanisms for that sector

Regional Matrix

Where the configuration lands geographically

Based on documented trade flows and mechanism strength by region — not just proximity to the signal source

Signal Components

The six signals — current readings against documented thresholds

The index score is only as credible as the signal readings that compose it. Every reading below is publicly verifiable

Company Universe

240 companies · scored against the current configuration

Filterable by sector and severity. Each score is the company-level reading of how the current signal configuration reaches their specific P&L

Showing 240 of 240 companies

Company	Sector	Regions	Revenue	Primary Signals	Exposure Score	Severity

How the index is calculated — and why it matters

The PHM Signal Index measures what no existing market indicator does: the compound geopolitical signal exposure of a named universe of companies, expressed as a single number updated on material signal events. Existing indicators measure either the signals themselves (Brent, DXY, TTF — market prices) or the outcomes (GDP, PMI, CPI — lagged data). The PHM Signal Index measures the mechanism in between — the documented connection between the current signal state and the P&L exposure of 240 named companies, weighted by the historical patterns that describe how each signal type transmits through each sector and region. The methodology: six signal inputs, each scored 0–100 against documented activation thresholds from the PHM condition lookup (309 patterns). Each company is assigned a sector exposure vector and a regional weight. The composite is the sector-weighted aggregate across all 240 companies.

PHM-SI = Σ (sector_weight × sector_score) · sector_score = Σ (revenue_weight_i × Σ (signal_score_j × exposure_ij)) · signal_score = f(current_reading, threshold, max_documented)

The index is not a prediction. It is a structured reading. A score of 72.7 means five of six tracked signals have exceeded their documented activation thresholds simultaneously — a configuration with no direct precedent in the post-Cold War period. The preparation windows it identifies are measurable. The decisions it prompts are specific. The methodology is public. Every number is verifiable.

Sources: ASCII/Complexity Science Hub Vienna/TU Delft — "When the Strait Closes", March 2026 · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, March 2026 · IEA · ECB · Lloyd's List Intelligence · JWC Advisories · PHM condition lookup (309 documented historical patterns) · Company revenue data from public filings 2024–25.

The index is the map.
The diagnostic is your position on it.

The Signal Index score tells you where the aggregate stands. The diagnostic tells you where your organisation stands inside that aggregate — your sector, your regions, your COGS structure, your route exposure, your EM revenue proportion. It identifies which of the active conditions are directly relevant to your P&L and produces a named task matrix with owners and timelines. 12 minutes free. Full report €1,200. 48 hours.

Run Diagnostic — 12 min → Executive Brief