The signal is readable.
The window is open.
Act before it closes.

The cascade threshold activated as identified. Day 38 of the Hormuz closure — the 4-week threshold documented in the TIDES model — has now been crossed. Port backlogs at Jebel Ali and across Gulf of Oman anchorages are showing the first measurable signs of non-linear compounding: roughly 400 vessels are holding position outside Hormuz, spot container rates on major routes have risen 150% since closure, and Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM have all applied emergency freight surcharges of $1,500–$3,500 per container. Iran has now established a tolled passage regime — the IRGC has created a registered corridor through Iranian territorial waters, with 26 vessels tracked using it since 13 March, some paying up to $2 million for passage. Western-flagged commercial vessels remain effectively blocked. Bunker fuel forward contracts for Q3 are pricing in $118–124/bbl Brent equivalent. Emerging cascade chain — helium/semiconductor: Qatar supplies 30% of global helium as a byproduct of LNG. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 2 March. Ras Laffan sustained extensive damage. Spot helium prices up 70–100%. Approximately 200 helium containers are stranded in Qatar — each holds 35–48 days of supply before venting. Semiconductor fabs in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are the largest helium consumers. Minimum 3-month supply disruption confirmed even in a ceasefire scenario. Organisations with semiconductor or advanced manufacturing dependencies should be confirming buffer stock and alternative sourcing now. Second emerging cascade chain — pharmaceutical/generic drug API supply: China produces 40-60% of global active pharmaceutical ingredients. India supplies a further share but is itself 70-80% dependent on Chinese precursors — the India alternative is a one-step buffer on the same dependency. The Hormuz disruption compounds this through cold chain logistics disruption and freight compression. Generic drugs, antibiotics, and cancer treatments carry the highest exposure. Buffer stocks in generic pharma are typically 30-60 days. Healthcare, pharmaceutical, and any organisation with medicine-dependent operations should confirm API buffer stock and tier-2 precursor dependency mapping now. The preparation windows identified in this entry on 27 March are now executing at 2–3× the cost they carried four days ago. The method's cascade identification was correct. The organisations that acted in the window acted at 1×. The Chemicals × CFO analysis published 1 April.

Resolution signals active — but not a clean resolution. Trump stated April 1 that "core strategic objectives are nearing completion" and expects war to end "within weeks." Brent has fallen from $112 to ~$101 on this signal. TTF from €54 to ~€48.5. The Kharg threat remains active after April 6 deadline passed — strikes remain on table.

The structural risk that survives resolution: Iran has demanded US recognition of sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz and is building a formal tolling architecture at ~$2M per vessel. Iran's parliament is drafting legislation to formalise tolls. A 5-nation corridor (China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan) is active. Western-flagged commercial vessels remain excluded. Even in a ceasefire, Iran has demonstrated capability and intent to control Hormuz permanently — insurance mathematics, shipping route architecture, and supply chain strategy are permanently repriced.

PHM assessment: The organisations that acted on the March 29 decision windows are now executing under normal conditions while others read the falling Brent price as "problem solved." The pre-committed responses identified in this entry — Cape routing approvals, bunker hedges, war risk insurance review, force majeure documentation — remain correct. The decision window is not reopening. The cost differential continues to widen.