Home Executive Briefing Centre Signal Watch Track Record Subscribe Diagnostic — Free →
PHM Intelligence

Built by someone who sat in the room.
For the people still in it.

Always-on geopolitical signal intelligence, calibrated to your function. You're not buying a briefing. You're buying time — the ability to read the pattern weeks before your internal process catches it.

€297 / month
€2,400 / year save 33%
Subscribe — €297 / month → Run the Diagnostic first — free →

Single user · Function-routed · Cancel any time · No trial needed — the Diagnostic shows you whether this is for you before you pay anything

Chief Geopolitics Officer → €250,000 – €450,000 / year
PHM Intelligence → €2,400 / year

Always-on pattern recognition for your existing leadership team. No headcount. No onboarding. Live from day one.

What's included

Three objects. One standing intelligence advantage.

Not a data feed. Not a news digest. Three specific deliverables that compound over time into pattern recognition your internal process can't replicate.

01
Signal Watch — Live
Event-driven intelligence entries published when something structural changes — not on a calendar. Each entry names the signal, documents the historical business precedent, and identifies your C-suite decision window before it closes.
Published before it's public. Routed to your function. CFO entries focus on hedge timing and board exposure. COO entries focus on cascade sequencing and sourcing windows. The same signal — different decisions.
02
Full EBC Access
The complete Executive Briefing Centre — live signal readings against documented thresholds, compound exposure by country and sector, and the full transmission path for your sector including pre-committed responses, scenario branches, and financial deltas.
Routed to your function throughout. A CFO and COO inside the same company are reading different versions of the same signal. Sharing a subscription gives you the wrong intelligence.
03
The Monthly Brief
One page. Dated. The current signal environment, where it moved, what that means for your preparation windows, and the action before the next entry publishes. Formatted to travel — forwarded to an EA, printed for a board pack, referenced before a meeting.
This is the object that moves through organisations. One CFO forwards it. The COO subscribes. The CPO subscribes. Each to their own function-routed version.
Function routing

Same signal. Different decisions.

PHM Intelligence is calibrated to your function from day one. Your Signal Watch feed, your EBC transmission paths, and your monthly brief are all routed to the decisions your role actually owns.

CFO
Hedge timing, board guidance, earnings exposure
Forward contract windows, cost structure stress-testing against Brent scenarios, proactive vs reactive guidance timing, covenant review against energy and tariff compound exposure.
Currently: Q3–Q4 crude hedge window · Tariff pass-through decision · Earnings guidance revision timing
COO
Supply chain routing, cascade sequencing, sourcing windows
Alternative routing before war risk premiums make it mandatory, Cape rerouting decision timelines, single-source concentration gaps, Tier 2–3 supplier exposure to signal-active zones.
Currently: Gulf corridor dependency audit · Cape routing window · Day 38 cascade threshold
CPO
Input cost contracts, supplier concentration, tariff pass-through
Forward commodity contract timing before the planting season locks prices, Section 232 and reciprocal tariff compound on procurement categories, dual-source mandate windows before alternative supply narrows.
Currently: Agricultural commodity lock window · Tariff compound on 38% import content · China API exposure
CEO
Strategic repositioning, board communication, scenario selection
Which preparation windows are still open and which have closed, scenario branch selection and activation criteria, board communication timing — proactive disclosure vs reactive at results, investor FAQ framework.
Currently: Stalemate vs escalation branch · Board communication before April 30 · Scenario activation thresholds
Confidence framework

This configuration matches documented past cases at 85–92%.
Here is how it transmitted to P&L.

PHM doesn't predict outcomes. It matches the current signal configuration against 50 years of documented patterns and shows you how comparable configurations transmitted — COGS first, working capital within 90 days, logistics, EM revenue. The transmission sequence is predictable. The preparation window is measurable. The confidence score reflects historical pattern match, not probability of future events.

Current signal configuration — April 2026
Pattern match vs Q3 202191%
Pattern match vs 1980 Gulf84%
Pattern match vs 1973 embargo78%
Confidence reflects historical analogue match, not outcome probability. Current: Hormuz Day 38 · Signal Index 72.7 · Above Ukraine entry point.
Track record

7 calls. Documented.
0 incorrect.

Every signal identification with the date it was called, the specificity of the call, and the verified outcome. Named sources. No retroactive framing.

7
Total calls
4
Confirmed
3
Active
0
Incorrect
Confirmed
BASF curtailment activation — Q4 2021
TTF above €100 threshold called 6 weeks before BASF announced first European production curtailment. Pattern: 1973 + 1980 energy transmission sequence. Verified: BASF SE Annual Report 2021.
Confirmed
Ukraine signal activation — February 2022
Six-signal configuration identified as matching pre-conflict pattern at 88% in January 2022. Activation confirmed February 24. Signal Index entry point: 68.2. Verified: PHM Signal Index archive.
Active
Hormuz cascade — Hormuz Day 38
Pattern match vs Q3 2021 at 91%. COGS transmission active. 4-week cascade threshold identified in TIDES research (30 March 2026). Non-linear cascade risk now active. Being tracked in real time.
View full track record — all 7 calls →
Board-ready outputs

The compound picture, formatted to travel.

Every subscriber gets outputs formatted for the room you're walking into — not dashboards to interpret, documents to present.

Monthly Signal Brief
One page. Dated. Current signal environment, where it moved, three actions before the window changes. Formatted for board packs and pre-meeting reference.
Quarterly Chart Book
Dated, versioned PDF of the current signal environment — sector exposure map, cascade calendar, config match. A named credential object to reference and forward.
Sector Transmission PDF
One-click export of your sector's full transmission path — pre-committed responses, scenario branches, financial deltas, and decision deadlines. From the EBC on demand.
Pricing

One subscription.
One intelligence advantage.

Single user. Function-routed from day one. No team plan — sharing a subscription gives you the wrong intelligence for your function.

PHM Intelligence
Individual Subscription

Full access, fully routed to your function. Everything a standing geopolitical signal OS should deliver — without the headcount.

€ 297 / month
or €2,400 / year — four months free
  • Signal Watch live — event-driven entries before public release, routed to your function
  • Full EBC access — complete transmission paths, scenario branches, financial deltas, pre-committed responses
  • Monthly brief — one page, dated, formatted to travel through your organisation
  • Quarterly chart book — versioned PDF, board-credible, named reference object
  • Sector transmission PDF exports — on-demand from the EBC for any sector
  • Unlimited diagnostics — refresh your exposure mapping as your position changes
  • Signal Watch archive — every entry, every precedent, searchable by sector and function
Subscribe — €297 / month → Annual — €2,400 / year (save 33%) →

Cancel any time · No trial needed — run the free Diagnostic first · Single named user · Function confirmed at signup

Why this exists

"The method is built on 50 years of documented patterns, not on opinion. The signal environment it's reading right now — Hormuz Day 38, DXY at 100.2, Brent above the curtailment threshold — is the closest configuration to Q3 2021 I've tracked since the BASF activation. I'm not watching this from a distance. The person maintaining this platform is currently operating inside the signal environment it was designed to read."

Predictive History Method™ Built inside the problem it was designed to solve
Questions

The questions worth asking.

Why not just read the FT?
The FT tells you what happened. PHM tells you what it means for your sector, your function, and your decision window — before the FT confirms it. The FT is the data. PHM is the pattern recognition applied to the data. One is a source. The other is a standing intelligence capability. They're not substitutes.
Why is it single user? Can my team share access?
Because a CFO and COO inside the same organisation are reading different transmission paths from the same signal — the decisions are different. Sharing a subscription gives your colleague CFO-routed intelligence when they need COO-routed intelligence. Each function subscribes to their own version. That's not a limitation — it's the product architecture.
How is this different from Control Risks or Stratfor?
Control Risks and Stratfor produce country risk narratives and geopolitical analysis for general audiences. PHM translates live geopolitical signals into sector-specific, function-specific business impact — with documented historical precedents, financial transmission sequences, and specific preparation windows. It's not geopolitical commentary. It's a standing P&L intelligence capability.
Do I need to run the Diagnostic before subscribing?
No requirement. But the Diagnostic is free and takes 12 minutes — it maps your specific organisation's exposure to the current signal environment and tells you which preparation windows are still open for your sector and function. It's the fastest way to know whether PHM Intelligence is worth it before you pay anything.
What does "function-routed" actually mean?
When you subscribe, you confirm your function — CFO, COO, CPO, or CEO. From that point, your Signal Watch entries, your EBC deep dives, and your monthly brief are all framed around the decisions your role owns. A CFO gets hedge timing and board communication windows. A COO gets routing decisions and cascade sequencing. The signal environment is the same. The intelligence is specific to you.
How often does content publish?
Signal Watch entries are event-driven, not calendar-driven. In an active period like the current Hormuz environment — multiple entries per week. In quieter periods — monthly synthesis. The monthly brief publishes on the first of every month without exception. The EBC is updated when signal values move materially.
PHM Intelligence

The window is open.
It won't be indefinitely.

Hormuz Day 38. Signal Index 72.7. The preparation windows for your sector are measurably open or closing right now. Run the free Diagnostic to see where you stand — then decide.

Subscribe — €297 / month → Run the Diagnostic — free →
© 2026 Predictive History Method™  ·  Privacy  ·  Terms  ·  enquiries@predictivehistorymethod.com